2020/04/20 第137期《厚源觀點》

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轉譯波克夏海瑟威副董事長查理芒格對本次全球疫情危機的觀點

以下為轉譯文,為求保持原文正確性,部分中文敘述盡量不作修飾,表達原作者的內容。

摘要: 

4 月 17 日,華爾街日報記者Jason Zweig 採訪了巴菲特的搭檔,波克夏.海瑟威副董事長查理·芒格先生,對新冠疫情引發的全球危機、航空公司的求援以及經濟蕭條的幅度等話題進行了探討。

查理芒格表示,我們現在已經在蕭條當中了,雖然會持續多久我們不能判斷,但我可以確定地說,我們一定會度過這場危機。

當有史以來最嚴重的颶風來臨時,我們只想帶著大量流動性走出颶風,我們想把 100% 的現金留著去收購企業。

沃倫巴菲特希望那些把 90%資產都投資於波克夏的人資金是安全的,所以我們總是很小心,但這並不意味著我們不能做一些積極的操作或抓住一些機會,我們是相對保守的,但也會在市場有明確安全預期時進場。

在危機下,很多人的反映是被嚇壞了。以航空公司為例,他們不知道該怎麼辦,但他們都在和政府談判,沒有人給沃倫打電話。

我們正在經歷一場衰退,唯一的問題是它影響範圍有多大,持續時間有多長,但我們確切知道這件事會過去。

我不認為我們會出現長期的大蕭條,政府會採取積極的舉措避免出現大蕭條。但我們會進入一段混亂的時期,美聯儲的“無限量化寬鬆”行為會對我們有所困擾。

我認為,早晚經濟將會復甦,那將會是溫和的經濟增長。就業水準很可能因為種種原因再也恢復不到疫情發生前的水準,我們永遠也回不到之前的就業率水準了。

我不知道股市會不會創下新低。當前除了對新冠疫情帶來的全國隔離順其自然,又還能做什麼呢?

以下是中英文對照全文:

Charlie Munger:     The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook
查理·芒格:“我和沃倫的電話沒有響個不停”

If the coronavirus lockdown has frozen your investing plans, you       re in good company. Charlie Munger is watching and waiting, too.
如果新冠疫情使你的投資計畫不得不暫時停止,你並不孤單,因為查理·芒格也在觀望和等待。

Mr. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Warren Buffett   s longtime business partner, likes to say that one of the keys to great investing results is “sitting on your ass.       That means doing nothing the vast majority of the time, but buying with “aggression” when bargains abound.
芒格先生是伯克夏海瑟威公司副主席,是華倫•巴菲特的長期商業夥伴,他喜歡說,取得成功的關鍵之一是“不要操作”,這意味著絕大多數時候什麼也不做,而在有便宜貨的時候“積極”地增持部位。

I spoke this week by phone with Mr. Munger, who turned 96 years old on Jan. 1. He sounded as sharp and vigorous as ever, and as usual he drew bright lines between what he   s fairly certain of and what he thinks belongs in the “too-hard pile  where he and Mr. Buffett consign questions they don     t know how to answer. Overall, Mr. Munger made it clear that he regards this as a time for caution rather than action.
我這周和芒格先生通了電話,他在今年 1 月 1 日時年滿 96 歲,聲音和以前一樣清晰而且充滿活力。與以往一樣,他在確定性的事情和“比較難的事情”中間畫了很清晰的界限,這也是他和巴菲特面對不知如何回答的問題時的慣常做法。總之,芒格非常明確地表示,現在應該謹慎行事,而不是採取行動。

In 2008-09, the years of the last financial crisis, Berkshire spent tens of billions of dollars investing in (among others) General Electric Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and buying Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. outright.
2008 年至 2009 年,也就是上一次金融危機爆發的那幾年,波克夏斥資數百億美元投資於通用電氣(General Electric Co.)、高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.),還收購了Burlington Northern Santa Fe 公司(本刊注:BNSF 公司運營北美洲最大的鐵路之一)。

以下是對話實錄:

1:Will Berkshire step up now to buy businesses on the same scale?

波克夏.海瑟威會像 2008、2009 年那樣進行同樣規模的收購嗎? 

“Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes, Mr. Munger told me. “We just want to get through the typhoon, and we    d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We re not playing, Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].
芒格說到:“嗯,我想說,當有史以來最嚴重的颶風來臨時,我們就像一位船長。“我們只想逃離颶風,我們寧願帶著大量的流動性衝出去,我們很認真的對待,這不是鬧著玩的。哦,太好了,一切都要完了,我們想把 100%的現金留著去收購企業。”

He added, “Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.
他補充說:“為了那些把 90%淨資產都投資於波克夏的人,沃倫希望伯克希爾是安全的。我們總是站在安全的這一邊,但這並不意味著我們不能做一些積極的操作或抓住一些機會。基本上,我們是相對保守的,但也會在市場有明確安全預期時進場。”

2:Surely hordes of corporate executives must be calling Berkshire begging for capital?

肯定有很多公司高管打電話給波克夏,想要公司進行投資吧?

 “No, they aren’t,” said Mr. Munger. “The typical reaction is that people are frozen. Take the airlines. They don’t know what the hell’s doing. They re all negotiating with the government, but they’re not calling Warren. They’re frozen. They’ve never seen anything like it. Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.
芒格說: “不,他們沒有在危機下,人們最典型的反應是,好像都被嚇住了。以航空公司為例,他們不知道該怎麼辦,他們都在和政府談判,沒有人給沃倫打電話。他們的生產活動被凍結了,他們從來沒見過這樣的事,他們也沒想到過這種可能性。”

He repeated for emphasis, “Everybody’s just frozen. And the phone is not ringing off the hook. Everybody’s just frozen in the position they’re in.
他不斷地強調說:“所有人好像都被嚇住了,而且我和沃倫的電話也沒有響個不停, 每個人好像都被困在原地了。”

With Berkshire’s vast holdings in railroads, real estate, utilities, insurance and other industries, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger may have more and better data on U.S. economic activity than anyone else, with the possible exception of the Federal Reserve. But Mr. Munger wouldn’t even hazard a guess as to how long the downturn might last or how bad it could get.
波克夏在鐵路、房地產、公用事業、保險和其他行業持有大量股份。巴菲特和芒格先生可能比其他人(除了美聯儲以外)有更多、更準確的關於美國經濟的資料。但芒格也不敢猜測經濟低迷會持續多久,或者會變得有多糟糕。

“Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,” said Mr. Munger. “This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.
芒格說“在美國,從來沒有人見過這樣的事情” (疫情)與以往任何事情都不同。每個人都說他們知道會發生什麼,但沒有人知道會發生什麼。”

3: Is another Great Depression possible?

可能會出現另一場大蕭條嗎?

 “Of course we’re having a recession,”  said Mr. Munger. “The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.
芒格說“當然,我們正在經歷一場衰退,“唯一的問題是它影響範圍有多大,持續時間有多長,但我們確切地知道這件事會過去。而具體會造成多少損失、衰退的程度有多大、會持續多久卻沒有人知道。”

He added, “I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.
他再補充說:“我不認為我們會出現長期的大蕭條,政府會採取積極的舉措避免出現大蕭條。但我們會進入一段混亂的時期,美聯儲的‘印鈔’行為會對我們有所困擾。”

4: Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?

如果病毒得到控制,政府會降低其在經濟中的干預作用嗎?

 “I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic consequences are going to be, said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again not again in a long time will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don t know.
芒格說,“我們並不確切地知道會有哪些宏觀經濟的後果,” “但我認為,早晚經濟將會復甦,那將會是溫和的經濟增長。就業水準很可能再也恢復不到疫情發生前的水準,可能因為種種原因,我們永遠也回不到之前的就業率水準了,我不知道。”

Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. “This will cause us to shutter some businesses, Mr. Munger said. “We have a few bad businesses that…we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.
波克夏不會毫髮無損,芒格說:“這場危機會使我們關閉一些業務。我們有一些經營不善的生意……作為(波克夏)家族企業中的一員,我們可以容忍(它們),但如果是其他企業,則已經被關閉了。我們有一些規模小的企業,關閉後將不會再開業了。”

Mr. Munger told me: “I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not. The coronavirus shutdown is “something we have to live through,” letting the chips fall where they may, he said. “What else can you do?
芒格先生告訴我:“我完全不知道股市會不會創下新低。”他說,因為冠狀病毒帶來的全國隔離是我們必須要做的事情,只能順其自然了。除此之外,“你還能做什麼呢?”

Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control by harvesting tax losses, for instance but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.
投資者目前可以透過小幅的操作來恢復控制感,但是,就目前而言,和芒格先生保持一致似乎才是最明智的做法。

資料來源自: WSJ, Bloomberg

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